FORESIGHT MODELING SUPPORTS DECISION-MAKING


Philippines. Photo: Ian Masias/IFPRI

FORESIGHT MODELING


SUPPORTS DECISION-MAKING

Climate change is expected to affect the price of food and the quality of diets around the world, causing an increase in annual deaths of over 500,000 by 2050. This projection, published in The Lancet, was just one result of foresight modeling work led by the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) and various partners, as part of the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight (GFSF) project.

“We work with all 15 CGIAR Research Centers and other partners, using foresight modeling tools to analyze alternative climate, demographic, market and investment future scenarios and explore how new agricultural technologies and policy options can best help to reduce poverty and hunger while protecting natural resources,” explains Keith Wiebe, senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute and head of the GFSF initiative.

For example, work from the team has already helped to inform decision-making in The Philippines, where government partners used the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade system of models to support national discussions on climate change. Projections of the effects of climate change on global food security – and how sustainable approaches such as climate smart agriculture can help to mitigate them – were also presented at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 22nd Conference of the Parties and the Global Landscapes Forum in Marrakech.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) used results from foresight work supported by PIM to prepare FAO’s flagship 2016 State of Food and Agriculture report on climate change, agriculture, and food security.

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